Australian trade balance, imports much higher than expected

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The Australian trade balance published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics could weigh on the Australian currency, as imports are much higher than expected.

Trade balance

  • Australia’s trade balance for February AUD 7.46 billion ahead of the expected surplus of AUD 12 billion and the previous surplus of AUD 12.891 billion.
  • Exports (monthly) February: 0% (est 0%; forecast 8%).
  • Imports (monthly) February: 12% (est 2%; forecast -2%).

AUD/USD is losing ground overall, but the price was set on the data, despite rising imports and a loss of surplus as a result. AUD/USD is still down about 0.15% for the session at 0.7495 and below the 0.7518 highs.

About the trade balance

The trade balance generated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can provide an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. The trade balance gives a first indication of net export performance. If stable demand in exchange for Australian exports is observed, this would turn into positive growth in the trade balance, and this should be positive for the AUD.
Review Alex Nekritin’s article – Trading the Aussie with Australia’s Balance of Trade

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