Bitcoin Slips APAC Trade as Australia’s Trade Balance Closes

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Bitcoin, BTC/USD, FOMC, Russia, Australian Trade Balance – Talking Points

  • Bitcoin Falls Against Vastly Stronger US Dollar After FOMC Minutes, Russian Sanctions
  • Australia’s trade balance is watched by APAC traders amid broader risk movement in financial markets
  • BTC/USD Could Threaten 100-Day SMA and 40,000 Psychological Level If Weakness Continues

Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

Asia-Pacific markets could fall today after a tumultuous day on Wall Street when stock indices fell for a second day. Bitcoin reacted to risk aversion by falling more than 3%, taking prices to the lowest level since March 24. The US Dollar strengthened against most of its major peers, with the DXY Index approaching the psychological level of 100. Oil prices fell on stronger than expected US inventory build.

Risky flows were boosted by the publication of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and by the United States imposing more sanctions on Russia for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The FOMC minutes showed that Fed members may be a little more hawkish in their respective outlooks than traders expected. That, along with Leal Brainard’s comments, bolstered bets on rate hikes. The likelihood of a 50 basis point hike at the May meeting has increased this week, according to overnight index swaps (OIS).

President Putin’s two adult daughters have been officially targeted by the United States in response to alleged war crimes in the Ukrainian towns of Bucha and Mariupol. The United States is also sanctioning Russia’s foreign minister, including his wife and daughter, and former prime minister Dmitry Medvedev. President Biden also announced that new investments in Russia would be prohibited for all Americans. In addition, sanctions against Russian banks have been tightened, although exclusions for the purchase of energy remain.

Australia is set to release trade data today. The February figure is expected to cross the line at 11.65 billion Australian dollars, according to a survey by Bloomberg. That would be down from the A$12.9 billion surplus the previous month. The smaller trade surplus may be driven by import growth as Australia’s consumer economy continues to strengthen following the country’s full reopening from years of Covid-related restrictions.

BTC/USD Technical Forecast:

The BTC/USD pair broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-day simple moving average overnight. Prices could fall further, which would emphasize the 100-day SMA, with the much-hyped 40,000 level below. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD oscillators are both flashing bearish signs, with the RSI crossing below the 50 mark and the MACD crossing below its midline.

BTC/USD daily chart

Chart created with TradingView

— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter

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