Canada’s trade balance in February +2.66 billion vs. +2.90 billion expected

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  • Before was $2.62 billion (revised to $3.12 billion)
  • Imports $56.08 billion vs $54.68 billion expected
  • Exports $58.75 billion vs $58.05 billion expected
  • Largest trade surplus with the United States since 2005 at $9.7 billion
  • Full report

Both imports and exports were strong, a sign of a strong economy despite the February shutdowns. The revision from the January precedent makes it the best reading since 2009. I expect many stronger readings in the coming months, especially on the export front due to high commodity prices.

Details of the report show a jump in imports of metallic and non-metallic mineral products (+14.3%) and the largest increase while imports of consumer goods were also strong (+2.5%). Export gains were more widespread with 8 of 11 product sections up over $100 million in the month. The biggest was energy products, which rose 7.8% to a record $15.4 billion.

BODY

BODY

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and, at the time of writing, is the fifth most widely held reserve currency in the world behind the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound. . The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. As of this writing, the CAD represents 2% of all global currency reserves. Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty and historical stability. Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a close link to the US dollar. This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, and Canada in turn importing more than half of its goods from its southern neighbour. For brief periods, the CAD has been pegged to the US dollar throughout its history. Currently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency. The value of the CAD is highly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil. As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from rising crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa. Additionally, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the Bank of Canada, national inflation rates, trade surpluses, foreign investment and direct payments.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is the official currency of Canada and, at the time of writing, is the fifth most widely held reserve currency in the world behind the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound. . The CAD is commonly referred to as the Loonie by forex analysts and traders. As of this writing, the CAD represents 2% of all global currency reserves. Its appeal is strong among central banking authorities given Canada’s economic strength, sovereignty and historical stability. Originally introduced in 1858, the CAD has since its inception maintained a close link to the US dollar. This is due to the high degree of trade between the two countries, with the United States receiving the vast majority of Canadian exports, and Canada in turn importing more than half of its goods from its southern neighbour. For brief periods, the CAD has been pegged to the US dollar throughout its history. Currently, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is responsible for intervening to maintain the value of the currency. The value of the CAD is highly correlated to the strength of global commodity prices such as oil. As a producer and exporter of oil and other commodities, Canada benefits from rising crude oil prices. When commodity prices rise, Canada’s terms of trade also generally improve, and vice versa. Additionally, a number of domestic factors can also influence the CAD. This includes interest rates set by the Bank of Canada, national inflation rates, trade surpluses, foreign investment and direct payments.
Read this term is higher today on stronger oil prices. Inflation

Inflation

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of valuation of strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates demand pressure on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country according to the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.

Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of valuation of strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates demand pressure on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country according to the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.
Read this term continues to be a concern with rising yields.

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