And because Indonesia’s import performance has more or less stagnated over the past two months (while remaining at a decent level around $16.3 billion), the country’s overall trade balance may also have shown a record surplus. October 2021.
However, we immediately warn that it seems unlikely that Indonesia will be able to continue this impressive export performance in November 2021. Why? Well, as we will see below, Indonesia’s export performance in October 2021 was heavily influenced by record coal and palm oil prices in October 2021. However, so far in November 2021, world coal prices fell quite significantly (to their lowest levels since July 2021). So while Indonesia’s export performance will – most likely – remain strong in November 2021 as overall commodity prices are still high, it is unlikely to be as impressive as the performance as we saw in October 2021.
Meanwhile, data (released by BPS on November 15, 2021) shows that Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of $5.73 billion in October 2021, the highest monthly trade surplus in the country’s history. . This is a 60.2% year-on-year (y/y) increase from the country’s trade surplus in October 2020 (see chart below), and an increase of 31.1% month-on-month (m/m) compared to the surplus in September 2021.
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