Qatar’s trade balance could hit $83.7 billion in 2026: FocusEconomics

Qatar’s merchandise trade balance, which is the difference between goods exports and goods imports, could reach $83.7 billion in 2026, FocusEconomics said in a report.
The merchandise trade balance this year will be $81.2 billion and $79.6 billion (in 2023), $77.6 billion (2024) and $78.9 billion (2025).
The current account balance, according to the researcher, will decline to $27.9 billion in 2026 from $41.3 billion in 2022.
The country’s GDP, FocusEconomics noted, will reach $232 billion in 2026 from $206 billion this year. Next year it is expected to remain at $206 billion, followed by $211 billion (2024) and $222 billion (2025).
Qatar’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) is expected to fall to 41.7 in 2026 from 46.4 in 2022. Next year it is estimated at 42.4, 43.6 (in 2024) and 42.6 (2025).
The fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP), FocusEconomics noted, will be 8.4 this year, followed by 5.7 (2023), 3.0 (2024), 3.6 (2025) and 4.2 (2026). ).
GDP per capita will rise to $91,484 in 2026 from $77,154 this year. Next year it will be $78,590, $81,384 (2024) and $86,400 (2025).
After mild overall GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2021 driven by the non-energy sector, available indicators suggest further strong non-energy performance in the first quarter of 2022, FocusEconomics said.
The Private Sector Purchasing Managers Index was well into expansion territory during the quarter. The March reading was particularly strong, boosted by accelerating production expansion and new orders.
Additionally, visitor arrivals soared in annual terms in January-February thanks to the lighter Covid-19 restrictions.
That said, the energy sector appeared to have performed less well, as February saw a double-digit decline in oil and gas extraction output.
In April, Qatar and Saudi Arabia formed a joint business council, with a view to strengthening trade relations.
“Qatar’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate this year due to improved private consumption, ongoing investments in the gas sector, warming relations with Gulf neighbors and a boost from tourism. from the FIFA World Cup – scheduled for the end of 2022,” said FocusEconomics.
A reinstatement of restrictions due to new variants of Covid-19 remains a major risk, as does rising consumer prices resulting from the war in Ukraine.
FocusEconomics panelists see a 4.3% increase in GDP in 2022, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% growth in 2023.
Inflation rose from 4.0% in February to 4.4% in March. Pricing pressures are expected to be significantly higher this year compared to last year, due to high global commodity prices and stronger domestic consumption.
FocusEconomics panelists see the country’s inflation averaging 4.0% in 2022, up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2023.