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According to researcher FocusEconomics, Qatar’s merchandise trade balance is expected to reach $ 55 billion by 2025, up from $ 42.2 billion this year.
The country’s merchandise exports are estimated at $ 91.9 billion in total, while imports are $ 36.9 billion in 2025, FocusEconomics said in its latest consensus forecast.
Qatar’s GDP, FocusEconomics noted, will grow from $ 171 billion this year to $ 203 billion in 2025. The forecast for next year is $ 181 billion, followed by $ 187 billion (2023) and 195 billion dollars (2024).
According to FocusEconomics, GDP per capita could reach $ 71,529 in 2025, up from $ 61,075 this year. Next year it is forecast at $ 64,246, followed by $ 66,314 (2023) and $ 68,928 (2024).
The country’s budget balance (as a percentage of GDP) was forecast at 3.8 in 2025 compared to 3.9 this year, 4.8 (2022), 3.7 (2023) and 3.8 (2024).
Qatar’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP), according to FocusEconomics in its consensus forecast, will fall to 50.3 in 2025, from 62.5 (2021), 57.8 (2022), 55.2 (2023) and 52.7 (2024).
Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be between 1.6 and 1.8 until 2025.
According to FocusEconomics, the economy grew 4% year-on-year in the second quarter, “rebounding firmly” from the 2.5% contraction in the first quarter.
The recovery was led by solid expansion in the non-energy sector, although the result was flattered by a base effect and the underlying momentum was likely limited by tighter Covid-19 restrictions early in the quarter, “said the researcher.
As for the third quarter (Q3), conditions seemed to be improving. The PMI index was on average significantly higher during the first two months of the quarter compared to the second quarter (Q2).
“In addition, the rise in the prices of crude oil and natural gas on a global scale should have boosted the country’s very important energy sector, in turn boosting overall economic activity,” noted FocusEconomics.
The country’s GDP, according to the researcher, “is expected to rebound” this year, thanks to stronger foreign demand and looser domestic restrictions, supporting domestic activity.
Next year, growth is expected to “pick up”, supported by a “healthier” energy sector and “accelerate” private spending.
A potential resumption of restrictions due to new variants of Covid-19 remains a key risk to the outlook this year and next.
FocusEconomics panelists see a 2.7% increase in GDP in 2021 and 3.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Inflation fell to 3% in August, after a five-year high of 3.1% in July. Price pressures are expected to remain moderate for the remainder of the year and into 2022.
FocusEconomics panelists forecast average inflation of 1.6% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
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