Sticky and high trade balance in December 2021: Emkay Global




oi-Sunil Fernandes


The trade balance remained broadly stable and elevated on December 21 at US $ 22 billion from last month, despite better sequential gains in exports of 24% MoM compared to imports 12% MoM amid high prices of raw materials and improved domestic demand., Emkay Global said in a report. .

“Non-oil and non-gold (NONG) imports continued to show healthy growth of 34.2% year-on-year, but edged up on a sequential basis. Both exports and imports have reached all-time highs in terms of value. FY22E and we expect it to remain capped at 1.8% + during FY23E. New global / domestic headwinds amid Omicron and lingering supply constraints would be key things to watch out for. However, healthy capital flows will ensure that FY22E BoP remains in a surplus of $ 41 billion, which could moderate to $ 30 billion in fiscal year 23E. We expect the USD-INR to hover between 74 and 76.50 in the near term. Factors such as the IPO of LIC and the inclusion of India in the GBIs in the coming quarters could boost flows in the middle of the year. CY22 and may be a temporary boost to INR, ”Emkay Global said in a report.

Article first published: Tuesday, January 4, 2022, 12:55 p.m. [IST]



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